Are you better off now? That's Dutton's trick question

For most people, the simple answer to Peter Dutton’s repeated question – are you better off today than you were three years ago? – is “no, I’m not”. But if Dutton can convince us this is the key question we need to answer in this election, he’ll have conned us into giving him an easy run into government.Why? Because it’s the wrong question. It’s the question of a high-pressure salesman. A question that makes the problem seem...

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Budget deficit perfection would be nice, but among the best is fine

The independent economist and former Treasury officer Chris Richardson, the leader of Treasury-in-Exile and thus chief apostle of fiscal rectitude, does the country a favour with his eternal campaigning to keep budget deficits and public debt levels low.It works like Defence, where the retired generals do the talking for the serving generals, whose opinions must be expressed only to their political masters in private.But all...

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Budget to give the economy a push next financial year

By MILLIE MUROI, Economics WriterIf there’s only one thing you gleaned from the budget – and it is the new tax cuts – that’s exactly what the government wanted.The clock is ticking for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, who, at the time of writing, was expected to call an election as early as Friday. That means a sweetener – such as a promise to let you keep more of your pay – is perfectly timed to nudge voters its way.But the...

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The government is timid and uninspired. This budget is a perfect fit

If you’re having trouble working up much interest in the budget, don’t feel bad. It’s not you, it’s the government. So much fuss is made about the annual federal budget that we expect it to be full of major announcements. Well, not this one, and not from a government that never wants to rock the boat.It is, however, a budget we’ve wished on ourselves. We’ve made it clear that, while ever we’re feeling pain from the cost of living,...

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It's official: supermarkets are overcharging. So change the subject

Why does a government release a highly critical report on the conduct of Woolworths and Coles on the Friday before a budget that will lead straight into an election campaign? Short answer: not for any worthy reason.One worthy reason could have been to show Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers really wanted to do something about fixing the cost of living, by making the question of what we should do about our overcharging...

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Trump is making a huge blunder. Here's how we seize the moment

By MILLIE MUROI, Economics Writer Eventually, Donald Trump will backpedal. Economists get plenty wrong, but one thing most believe – and get right – is that widespread tariffs are stupid. Why? Because they create more losers than winners.Trump is smart enough to know this. But he’ll look to twist arms with his tariffs until some of his demands are met (seemingly at the top of his wishlist: Mexico, Canada and China curbing...

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The outlook for house insurance is much worse than we're being told

The big news on house insurance this week was the response of the insurance industry’s peak body to a parliamentary committee’s extensive criticisms of its treatment of people claiming on their policies after the massive floods of 2022.The Insurance Council of Australia accepted some of the committee’s recommendations, announced an “industry action plan” and generally promised to be good boys in future. But the consumer groups...

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Argy-bargy on the way to next week's off-again, on-again budget

According to the business press, Anthony Albanese was desperately hoping for an early election so he could avoid next week’s budget and the drubbing he’ll get when Treasurer Jim Chalmers is forced to reveal projections of a decade of budget deficits.If you think that, you don’t know much about budgets. But, more to the point, nor do I expect to believe the budget’s forecasts for the economy in 2025-26.The first reason I don’t...

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Fixing the economy is like training for a marathon: not much fun

By MILLIE MUROI, Economics WriterIt used to completely baffle me how addicted runners seem to be to their sport. My dad, who has run nearly 200 marathons, used to drive my brother and I to park runs at the crack of dawn as kids. Not my idea of fun.But the more I think about it, the more I realise running is like competition reform: often a pain in the glutes, but a habit that’s rewarding (and actually a bit enjoyable) if you...

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How many more cyclones before our leaders finally do something?

Forgive me for being hard-headed while everyone’s feeling concerned and sympathetic towards those poor flooded Queenslanders and people on NSW’s northern rivers, but now’s the time to resolve to do something about it.As the rain eases, the rivers go down, the prime minister flies back to Canberra and the TV news tires of showing us one more rooftop in a sea of rushing water, the temptation is to leave the locals to their days...

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Maybe the inflation surge didn't happen the way we've been told

According to Reserve Bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser last week, we’ve entered a world characterised not just by volatility, complexity and uncertainty, but also by “ambiguity” – a world where “you don’t know the model”, meaning that “judgment and instinct are as important as formal analysis”.At last, someone is talking sense.Academic economists may be locked into their maths and econometric models, but practising economists...

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Our jobs market is booming, but the RBA needn't be so worried

Despite the economy only just popping its head up after 21 months of “per-person recession”, our jobs market has been going gangbusters. How can it possibly be so strong? It’s this strength that has made the Reserve Bank so reluctant to cut interest rates.This week we learnt from the “national accounts” that the economy – real gross domestic product – grew by a princely 0.6 per cent during the three months to the end of December....

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Our home-building industry is going nowhere fast

You may think that a newly built home or unit looks pretty swish. But what no one’s noticed until now is that our home building industry is clapped out. Gone to pot. It’s going nowhere fast. While most of our industries have improved greatly over the past 30 years, the housing industry hasn’t. If anything, it’s getting worse.As I’ve mentioned before, now that the ever-worsening affordability of home ownership has reached a crisis...

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The real truth on productivity: the bosses aren't trying hard enough

At last, some sense on the causes of our poor productivity performance. For ages, we’ve been told it’s the government’s fault – maybe even the voters’ fault – for failing to make economic reforms. But last week the econocrats finally set the record straight: the problem is, our businesses have stopped doing the things that make us more productive.For about a decade, we’ve had little improvement in the economy’s productivity –...

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Women still being kept in the home, but not by what you think

By MILLIE MUROI, Economics WriterIt’s a topic that, despite its horrific consequences, makes us avert our eyes, close the tab, and turn the page.Usually, sadly, it’s only when there’s a death that readers – and the click-hungry media – pay attention. But before I lose you, I want to reassure you that it’s not all bad news. And I want you to hear from people who have defied the odds.We already know domestic violence kills one...

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To make Medicare healthy again, the pollies must fix its symptoms

I don’t know if you noticed, but the federal election campaign began on Sunday. The date of the election has yet to be announced – it may be mid-April or mid-May – but hostilities have begun. And they began with an issue that’s been big in election campaigns for 50 years: Medicare.On Sunday, Anthony Albanese revealed his election masterpiece, the knockout punch that would send Peter Dutton reeling, something Albo has had up his...

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